Fagradalsfjall News

 

The Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) detected an increasing trend of seismic activity began yesterday.

18 quakes at regular intervals of 1 to 10 per minute have been recorded located 2-4 km northeast of Geldingadalir followed by a significant rise of seismic energy at about 00:30 local time.
26 quakes during the past 24 hours were recorded with magnitudes of 3 or more.
1400 earthquakes have been detected in total over the last 24 hours, of which the largest quake with a maximum magnitude of 4.9 occurred at 09:23 local time and was widely felt on the SW corner.
Earthquakes and the increase in seismic activity reflect magma intrusions at shallow level and likely push its way into same dikes as it used to erupt before.
As mentioned in the latest report, the expansion continues to be measured meaning that magma is probably accumulating under the surface and it's difficult to predict what will happen next.
Based on the increased seismic activity, the IMO has changed the Aviation Color Code to "orange".

12/24 Update:

The elevated seismic activity continues.
2000 earthquakes have been detected in total over the last 17 hours at 5-8 km depth suggesting that the flux of magma rising within the volcano is significant and the most likely scenario of an imminent eruption is considered to occur in Geldingadalir eruption site.
GPS instruments detected a rapid ground deformation, another tell-tale sign of an impending eruption, which is similar to the pre-eruption measurements before 19 March.
Source: Icelandic Meteorological Office volcano activity update 23 December 2021

UPDATE 12/28:

The number of earthquakes rapidly increasing but the activity slowed down a bit over the past 24 hours.
18000 earthquakes have already been detected in total, mostly with magnitudes of 4 or more since the seismic crisis started on 21 December.
Strongest earthquakes occurred outside of a potentially eruption site yesterday.
People are advised to avoid the area due to risk of rockfalls.

UPDATE 12/29:

600 quakes have been detected since midnight, but have occurred at a lower number than yesterday at the same time.
A maximum magnitude of 3.6 occurred yesterday at 08:25 local time.
Magma migration at depth is still about to pressurize and the increase in the seismic activity is likely a sign of its accumulation.
19000 earthquakes have already been detected in total, mostly with magnitudes of 4 or more since the seismic crisis started on 21 December.

UPDATE 1/8:

GPS instruments continue to detect a mild ground deformation, although the seismic activity at Reykjanes Peninsula continues at decreasing levels.
Numerical models indicate that a current flux of magma is less than half of the pre-eruptive magma volume that started in March.
It is unclear whether the magma batch will reach the surface as happened in March.
The most likely scenario, according to models and the latest measurements, is that the magma may start to solidify in dikes sooner than reach the ground.
"Scientists have pointed out a comparison between the activity at Fagradalsfjall and the activity seen in the Krafla fires", says Michelle Parks, an expert at the Icelandic Meteorological Office. "In the Krafla fires, about half of the magma intrusions ended with an eruption and the other did not and we could see examples of such activity at Fagradalsfjall. It affects how big the magma intrusions are and how shallow they reach", says Michelle.
Source: Icelandic Meteorological Office volcano activity update 7 January 2022